Anteproof › Worked examples

What a forecast looks like, and how to check it

Every number on this page is fetched live from the API when you load it. Nothing here is a screenshot, and nothing is written down in advance.

How to check we are not marking our own homework

Every forecast goes into an append-only log, and we anchor the log's head to github.com/anteproof/log once a day. A live forecast becomes checkable from outside with the first receipt after it was issued, which can be up to a day later. Anchoring started on 2 September 2026, so a forecast that resolved before then has no receipt older than its outcome. If a question resolves inside that daily gap, that one will not either. Both kinds are in the scored record, which is public.

The maintenance forecasts have no track record yet. Every past question was resolved against a third-party archive of GitHub events that we no longer trust, so we withhold the count and the score. The response you just fetched says so itself, in calibration_note.withheld. The current state of every family is on the calibration page and in /v1/proof.