{"gate":{"n":892,"bss":0.10810300403119288,"passes":true,"withheld":null,"horizon_days":7,"family":null,"family_label":"GDELT news tone, 864 of 892","families":[{"family":"goldstein_scale","label":"GDELT news tone (daily)","metric":"goldstein_scale","n":864},{"family":"story_points","label":"Hacker News points (daily)","metric":"story_points","n":28}],"forecaster_version":"m5-v5","as_of":"2026-10-08","evaluated_at":"2026-10-08T18:18:52.145375+00:00"},"maintenance":{"state":"withheld","n_resolved":null,"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["commits_hourly","release_published"],"degraded_from":"2025-11-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved “GitHub commits, 90 days” and “GitHub release, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind."},"clean_window":null,"per_family":{"commits_90d":{"label":"GitHub commits, 90 days","n":null,"skill_claimable":false,"n_pastcast":null,"n_live":null,"brier":null,"brier_skill_score":null,"brier_skill_ci95":null,"enough_to_judge":false,"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["commits_hourly"],"degraded_from":"2026-07-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved “GitHub commits, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive push data, whose capture is unreliable from 2026-07-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind."}},"release_90d":{"label":"GitHub release, 90 days","n":null,"skill_claimable":false,"n_pastcast":null,"n_live":null,"brier":null,"brier_skill_score":null,"brier_skill_ci95":null,"enough_to_judge":false,"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["release_published"],"degraded_from":"2025-11-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved “GitHub release, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind."}}},"judged":null,"min_n_for_a_verdict":30,"open_questions":2249,"earliest_live_resolution":"2026-12-06","calibration_url":"/calibration?horizon=90"},"coverage":{"as_of":"2026-10-24T18:18:59.645302+00:00","unit":"repositories","tracked":{"count":2723,"of":null,"definition":"Repositories with at least one day of history in entity_metric_daily for commits_api_daily or release_published_api. Counted on the series this deployment currently reads. The GH Archive pair still has history for a small number of repositories that the REST API series does not. Holding history is not the same as publishing a forecast."},"questioned":{"count":1050,"of":"tracked","definition":"Tracked repositories carrying at least one OPEN maintenance question (families commits_90d or release_90d). EXCLUDES pastcasts (provenance source 'pastcast'), which are point-in-time simulations run against historical data to score the forecaster, not questions asked about the future."},"forecast":{"count":940,"of":"questioned","definition":"Questioned repositories where at least one of those open questions carries a live forecast. EXCLUDES backtest forecasts (forecast.is_backtest = true). An issued forecast is not a scored answer; see the withheld state below before reading these as results."},"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["commits_hourly","release_published"],"degraded_from":"2025-11-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved “GitHub commits, 90 days” and “GitHub release, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind."}},"note":{"headline":"The maintenance track record is withheld.","body":"Withheld: every resolved “GitHub commits, 90 days” and “GitHub release, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind. The first live questions come due on 6 December 2026 (2,249 open). The skill number above is our existing record on 7-day pastcasts (GDELT news tone, 864 of 892, n=892). Treat the maintenance probabilities as unscored.","maintenance_only_body":"Withheld: every resolved “GitHub commits, 90 days” and “GitHub release, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind. The first live questions come due on 6 December 2026 (2,249 open). Treat the maintenance probabilities as unscored.","text":"The maintenance track record is withheld. Withheld: every resolved “GitHub commits, 90 days” and “GitHub release, 90 days” forecast was scored against third-party GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. We no longer trust those resolutions, so no number built on them is one we can stand behind. The first live questions come due on 6 December 2026 (2,249 open). The skill number above is our existing record on 7-day pastcasts (GDELT news tone, 864 of 892, n=892). Treat the maintenance probabilities as unscored. Details: https://anteproof.com/calibration?horizon=90"},"generated_at":"2026-10-24T18:19:01.298108+00:00"}