# Anteproof — week ending 2026-09-02

Every forecast below was logged before its outcome was knowable, and none has been edited since. Period: 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-02.

## Resolved this period (24)

Brier score **0.125** (a coin flip scores 0.250; lower is better), 19 of 24 on the right side of 50%.

| Our forecast | Outcome | Score | Question |
|---:|:---:|---:|:---|
| 39% | YES | 0.372 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026? |
| 22% | NO | 0.048 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on August 31, 2026? |
| 9% | NO | 0.008 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on August 31, 2026? |
| 31% | YES | 0.481 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026? |
| 6% | NO | 0.004 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026? |
| 7% | NO | 0.005 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026? |
| 10% | NO | 0.011 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on August 31, 2026? |
| 54% | NO | 0.286 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will Claude go down 14+ times in August? |
| 4% | NO | 0.001 | Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? |
| 70% | NO | 0.495 | Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August? |
| 11% | YES | 0.784 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August? |
| 52% | YES | 0.226 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? |
| 75% | YES | 0.064 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? |
| 92% | YES | 0.006 | Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? |
| 89% | YES | 0.011 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? |
| 85% | YES | 0.021 | Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? |
| 6% | NO | 0.004 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? |
| 60% | YES | 0.158 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 29, 2026? |

## New forecasts (60)

| Our forecast | Resolves | Question |
|---:|:---|:---|
| 10% | 2026-09-26 | Will scaleai's daily job_posted (capital) exceed 3.5 on 2026-09-26? |
| 38% | 2026-12-31 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? |
| 36% | 2026-12-01 | Will SOAR.COM, INC. file a new SEC Form D (including amendments) with EDGAR between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-01 (inclusive)? |
| 49% | 2026-10-02 | Will anthropic post at least 265 new job listings on its Greenhouse board over the 30 days from 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-02 (inclusive)? |
| 33% | 2026-09-26 | Will anthropic's daily job_posted (capital) exceed 15.0 on 2026-09-26? |
| 38% | 2026-12-31 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? |
| 75% | 2026-11-01 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? |
| 35% | 2026-10-31 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? |
| 28% | 2026-10-31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? |
| 21% | 2026-10-31 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026? |
| 57% | 2026-11-01 | Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? |
| 50% | 2026-10-31 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? |
| 18% | 2026-10-31 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? |
| 42% | 2026-10-31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |
| 29% | 2026-10-31 | Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? |
| 42% | 2026-10-31 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? |
| 19% | 2026-10-31 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? |
| 14% | 2026-10-31 | Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? |
| 35% | 2026-10-31 | Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? |
| 41% | 2026-10-31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? |
| 65% | 2026-10-01 | Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by September 30, 2026? |
| 37% | 2026-10-01 | SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? |
| 44% | 2026-10-31 | Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? |
| 30% | 2026-10-01 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? |
| 39% | 2026-10-01 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? |

…and 35 more, all in the public log.

## Launch gate

Latest evaluation (2026-09-02): **PASSES**. n = 898 · Brier skill +0.107 · bias z +0.30 · Spiegelhalter Z +0.50

Against prediction markets: on 13 resolved market questions our Brier was 0.034 vs the market's 0.026 at the same moment — behind.

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Anteproof is a product of Recoilix LLC.