# Anteproof — week ending 2026-10-24

Every forecast below was logged before its outcome was knowable, and none has been edited since. Period: 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-24.

## Resolved this period (0)

Nothing we forecast resolved in this period.

## New forecasts (154)

| Our forecast | Resolves | Question |
|---:|:---|:---|
| 7% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package lodash._getnative reach 6,853,006+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 22% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package chownr reach 208,624,450+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 3% | 2026-10-25 | Will PyPI package pyinotify reach 1,337,633+ weekly downloads by 25 Oct 2026? |
| 4% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package realpath-native reach 5,084,450+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 16% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package lodash._basecopy reach 3,624,248+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 25% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package @xtuc/long reach 97,408,627+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 69% | 2027-01-19 | Will huggingface/tokenizers publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 14% | 2027-01-19 | Will jonschlinkert/isobject publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 26% | 2027-01-19 | Will python-validators/validators publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 24% | 2027-01-19 | Will pytest-dev/iniconfig publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 48% | 2027-01-19 | Will triton-lang/triton publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 28% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package boolbase reach 120,212,619+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 4% | 2026-10-25 | Will PyPI package argh reach 1,190,245+ weekly downloads by 25 Oct 2026? |
| 4% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package unquote reach 16,061,763+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 4% | 2026-10-25 | Will Rust crate objc-foundation reach 1,084,006+ weekly downloads by 25 Oct 2026? |
| 23% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package deep-is reach 279,755,275+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 20% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package @nicolo-ribaudo/eslint-scope-5-internals reach 12,462,242+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 38% | 2027-01-19 | Will pygobject/pycairo publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 62% | 2027-01-19 | Will stefanfoulis/django-phonenumber-field publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 15% | 2027-01-19 | Will rust-lang/pin-utils publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 39% | 2027-01-19 | Will MagicStack/asyncpg publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 63% | 2027-01-19 | Will dtolnay/cxx publish a release by 19 Jan 2027? |
| 11% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package filename-reserved-regex reach 25,525,075+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 27% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package natural-compare reach 265,286,512+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |
| 4% | 2026-10-27 | Will npm package es-array-method-boxes-properly reach 24,296,721+ weekly downloads by 27 Oct 2026? |

…and 129 more, all in the public log.

## Most at risk this week

The 10 repositories with the lowest open maintenance forecasts, among source repositories of packages with at least 1,000 dependent repositories (ecosyste.ms dependent_repos_count). Lowest of the two families first; a probability is our latest forecast, rounded to a whole percent.

| Package(s) | Repository | P(keeps commit pace) | P(release in 90d) | Dependents | Receipt |
|:---|:---|---:|---:|---:|:---|
| `npm:rxjs` | ReactiveX/rxjs | 3% (515+ commits) | 29% | 2,616,591 | [#271573](https://anteproof.com/questions/271573) · [#271662](https://anteproof.com/questions/271662) |
| `npm:js-yaml` | nodeca/js-yaml | 3% (166+ commits) | — | 1,075,506 | [#275704](https://anteproof.com/questions/275704) |
| `npm:builtins` | juliangruber/builtins | 3% (11+ commits) | 14% | 929,408 | [#276019](https://anteproof.com/questions/276019) · [#306457](https://anteproof.com/questions/306457) |
| `npm:through2` | rvagg/through2 | 3% (24+ commits) | 5% | 849,057 | [#275850](https://anteproof.com/questions/275850) · [#277683](https://anteproof.com/questions/277683) |
| `pypi:chardet` | chardet/chardet | 3% (130+ commits) | 8% | 284,023 | [#275834](https://anteproof.com/questions/275834) · [#281224](https://anteproof.com/questions/281224) |
| `pypi:isort` | PyCQA/isort | 3% (124+ commits) | 30% | 126,691 | [#276066](https://anteproof.com/questions/276066) · [#276665](https://anteproof.com/questions/276665) |
| `pypi:mistune` | lepture/mistune | 3% (90+ commits) | 33% | 64,256 | [#275838](https://anteproof.com/questions/275838) · [#306858](https://anteproof.com/questions/306858) |
| `pypi:asn1crypto` | wbond/asn1crypto | 3% (31+ commits) | — | 34,080 | [#276049](https://anteproof.com/questions/276049) |
| `pypi:statsmodels` | statsmodels/statsmodels | 3% (1,303+ commits) | 56% | 23,993 | [#275604](https://anteproof.com/questions/275604) · [#276094](https://anteproof.com/questions/276094) |
| `crate:num-bigint` | rust-num/num-bigint | 3% (78+ commits) | — | 20,513 | [#275754](https://anteproof.com/questions/275754) |

*A low probability is a forecast that a stated question resolves NO. It is a statement about that question only. The commits_90d and release_90d families have no published track record: their first results were measured against a GitHub event archive whose capture failed during 2026, so we withheld them. New questions resolve against GitHub's own API. A probability is not advice.*

Maintenance families: No track record is published for these questions. Their outcomes were counted from a third-party archive of GitHub events that we have since stopped trusting, so a score would measure that archive rather than the projects. We withheld it instead of publishing a number we cannot stand behind.

## Launch gate

Latest evaluation (2026-10-08): **PASSES**. n = 892 · Brier skill +0.108 · bias z +0.65 · Spiegelhalter Z +0.33

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